Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 11.406367 14.014934 16.929722 20.405875 24.415544 28.872397 34.176895
2025-12-14 7.712974 11.033946 15.172686 20.611074 27.463386 35.702599 46.240695
2025-12-21 5.266998 8.605635 13.168517 19.649561 28.387327 39.518590 54.501598
2025-12-28 4.130575 7.548820 12.587239 20.194935 30.991180 45.341223 65.376042
2026-01-04 3.249479 6.613527 11.935626 20.428044 33.034006 50.409385 75.423493
2026-01-11 2.629010 5.925136 11.492022 20.824842 35.231534 55.713827 85.968826
2026-01-18 2.185250 5.424413 11.235929 21.420670 37.691872 61.450667 97.320162
2026-01-25 1.694198 4.694802 10.452281 21.036945 38.571197 64.892759 105.529103
2026-02-01 1.387340 4.252840 10.091164 21.279928 40.394745 69.760770 115.941454
2026-02-08 1.072979 3.692910 9.400800 20.844411 41.045623 72.842076 123.809073
2026-02-15 0.808615 3.157658 8.651386 20.188051 41.235390 75.167980 130.584920
2026-02-22 0.687188 2.960346 8.569220 20.756412 43.525965 80.868346 142.663759
2026-03-01 0.513408 2.552630 7.980847 20.343371 44.196290 84.219268 151.616533
2026-03-08 0.406309 2.306829 7.720634 20.563959 46.032871 89.594459 164.022010
2026-03-15 0.276957 1.896153 6.951816 19.605166 45.596206 91.143203 170.390213
2026-03-22 0.226416 1.767447 6.885220 20.149647 48.016856 97.606596 184.874943
2026-03-29 0.177217 1.607822 6.693881 20.382352 49.836519 103.101553 197.956371
2026-04-05 0.141413 1.485899 6.581677 20.778459 51.993157 109.260587 212.322187
2026-04-12 0.115832 1.399112 6.555842 21.373255 54.578888 116.270412 228.313680
2026-04-19 0.081295 1.211968 6.155213 20.990194 55.123720 119.642930 238.290137
2026-04-26 0.062238 1.109617 6.011184 21.232757 56.978249 125.443701 252.546509
2026-05-03 0.041755 0.955113 5.629890 20.797995 57.347953 128.520634 262.212539
2026-05-10 0.025927 0.801824 5.193737 20.142780 57.173686 130.556236 270.114077